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REAL ESTATE MARKET
UPDATE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR METRO DC REAL ESTATE 2009
AND BEYOND
Thursday, September 10, 2009 * 4:30pm – 8:30 pm * Clyde’s
of Tysons Corner
Five speakers treated Appraisal Institute members and guests
to a hopeful update on the economic outlook for real estate
in the Metro DC area. The presenters delivered an overall
economic review as well as individual reports for the multi-family/condo,
retail, hotel, and office segments of the real estate market
covering current inventory, projected supply and demand and
investment dynamics for each market segment.
Here are just a couple observations:
-
Capsulated, the message I got was #1 confirmation that
the DC Metro market is quantifiably better off than the
rest of the country and therefore likely to recover more
quickly. But #2 there have been very few large transactions
of commercial property in the DC Metro area so far 2009.
Loan to value requirements in underwriting have gone from
80% loans available to 50% requirements.
- I've always known that in a bad market class A office buildngs
suck the life out of class B buildings since tenants can move
up for little or no increase in rent as the class A managers
lower rents or make concessions. A similar situation seems to
pertain with class A and class B apartment buildings. However,
with hotel properties the opposite seems to happen. Travelers
seek out the lower room rates of budget or off-brand hotels
in a bad economy. I guess this happens because so much of the
operating expense of hotels is not occupancy sensitive and managers
of premier properties can't lower room rates enough to be competitive
with properties that have lower expenses because they have fewer
amenities.
See below to view the speakers' handouts.
Speakers:
Kevin Thorpe - Vice President and Director
of Research, Cassidy & Pinkard – General Economic
Outlook - Handout
Grant Montgomery – Vice President,
Delta Associates – Multi-Family/Condo Market -
Handout unavailable
R. William Kent - Executive Vice President,
CB Richard Ellis – Retail Market - Handout
Eric Berkman - Senior Vice President,
Institutional Investment Group, Grubb & Ellis Company
- Office Market - Handout
Mark Morris, CEO, Fraser Forbes
– Land Development Market - Handout
Click here to see the re-cap
from last year's Real Estate Market Update.
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